I'm going back to my previous editorial about the old wive’s tale that says early and copious berries on the Rowan trees are a sign of a hard winter because I did a bit of research about it. In reality, the number of berries is a sign of how sunny it was in Spring when the flowers are developing and getting the nutrients they need to produce those wonderful red berries. So, sadly, no truth there. Or is that true? Well, it turns out that there may well be a connection after all.

You see, the weather in late Winter/early Spring is connected to something called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which gives the difference in atmospheric pressure between the sub-tropical(around the Azores) high and the sub-polar (Iceland) low sea level pressures. In spring, a positive NAO typically leads to increased cloud cover and reduced sunshine levels in Scotland due to stronger westerly winds bringing moist, unsettled weather from the Atlantic.

Conversely, a negative NAO often results in clearer, drier conditions, increasing sunshine levels as high-pressure systems dominate, reducing cloud cover. This is good for rowan berries later in the year.

However! A negative NAO also brings colder, snowier conditions, particularly in the mountains and higher ground, and more settled, dry weather at times. These are perfect conditions for all those winter outdoor enthusiasts, from landscape photographers to ice climbers!

Supposedly, the NAO cannot be predicted over a longer period, but recent research has shown that the SST tripole (strong surface temperature trends) can strongly influence the NAO, and SST is predictable in the longer term.

And if you look at winter 2010, that’s precisely what happened - lots of lush berries and a proper hard winter! It turns out that you should always nod sagely when an old wife tells you something!

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